Understanding Pascal’s Wager

“The heart has its reasons of which reason knows nothing.”

Glen Scrivener argues that atheists misunderstand Pascal’s Wager in Episode number 595 of his Speak Life Podcast (Atheists Misunderstand Pascal’s Wager (and so do Christians) I think he is right, and it seems that Christians don’t really understand it, either. Me included … until now. Before we dive in, though, let’s review Pascal’s Wager.

Blaise Pascal starts with the premise that human beings can neither prove the existence of God, nor prove that God does not exist. This is a concession, perhaps, to the atheist, but the atheist stands in no better position in relation to proving that God does not exist.

If that is the reality, then whether to believe in God or not is crap shoot. If we can’t prove it one way or the other, are we any better off than a roll of the dice? Pascal says we are, and the truly rational person would choose belief in God based on what is known as Pascal’s Wager.

Believing in God potentially gains a person everything (eternal life, joy, meaning, etc.). If God exists, the believer hits the jackpot. Believing in God also has very little downside. Pascal supposes that a person might forego some pleasures that were not pursued or time and energy spent living out faith (more on that below), but a person is little worse off for believing in God if God does not exist.

On the other hand, a person who doesn’t believe in God loses everything if God does exist (eternal separation from God). Therefore, Pascal said, the rational thing is to believe in God, because the potential gain is infinite and the potential loss is minimal. Given that we cannot prove God one way or the other, the truly rational person would “wager” on God, says Pascal.

Christopher Hitchens calls Pascal’s Wager “religious hucksterism of the cheapest, vulgarist, nastiest kind,” and Alex O’Connor calls it “half-hearted ass-kissing just in case.” Richard Dawkins asks, “What is so special about belief?” And, “Why would God not look for something of more substance from us, like being good?”

The often deriding comments beg for some understanding, and Dawkins’s legitimate questions call for a response. Matt Dillahunty says, “Pascal’s wager is an apologetic argument that attempts to demonstrate that belief in God is warranted based on decision theory and probability.” But is it?

All of these comments and questions assume that Pascal’s Wager is an apologetic argument for God, and they find it woefully wanting in that respect. Even Christians assume it is an apologetic argument, also, but everyone who makes that assumption has missed the actual point of Pascal’s Wager.


Glen Scrivener’s summary of Pascal’s Wager taken from Graham Tomlin’s book, Pascal, The Man Who Made the Modern World, exposes the error people make in these assumptions. Pascal wasn’t attempting to assert a rational argument, defense, or proof of God. He was making a very different point altogether.


Pascal was a genius by any measure. He was a scientist, mathematician, geometer, physicist, philosopher, polemicist, and theologian. He invented probability theory; he proved the existence of the vacuum, laid the foundations of integral calculus, performed what is called the first proper scientific experiment, established the principle that made possible the hydraulic press, demonstrated that air has weight, and many other things.

Thus, Scrivener says, “If we think that Blaise Pascal was silly, that might not reflect on Blaise Pascal; it might be a sign that we have misunderstood him.” The podcast featuring Graham Tomlin linked above and embedded below does a great job explaining the misunderstanding. It is worth the 25 minutes to watch and listen, but I am going to summarize and add my own thoughts as I continue.



Continue reading “Understanding Pascal’s Wager”

Are We Alien and Strange Enough in Our World?

Are you looking for a heavenly country?


Aliens and strangers in our world: that is an apt definition of Christians. We are made for more than the present heavens and present earth that we live in. Though we are born of perishable seed, we have been born again of imperishable seed, and we look forward to the day when we, like the acorn, will die so that we may rise again.

I say these things as I think about the chaos, or law and order, of our times, depending upon your perspective. I see it as chaos from the perspective of the immigrants who have come to the United States for a better life. It is just law and order from the perspective of the person who defends the current immigration laws of our country.

Of course, it isn’t that simple. Slavery was once legal in our country. Is it really just law and order? Or is it something else?

Our ancestors came here for a better life. Unless, of course, our ancestors are Native American. My father’s ancestors came here in 1846. they entered a commercial port in New York City before Ellis Island existed and before there was any process in place to receive immigrants. My mother’s ancestors came here long before that.

When I was young, we celebrated the pilgrims and other sojourners who came here for a better life. Seeking a better life for ourselves and our families, our children and our children’s children was the American way. We were proud of the pioneer spirit brought people to our shores.

It’s also a bit more complicated for Christians, as we believe this world is not all there is, as I often say. Followers of Christ know that a place has been prepared for each one of us. We know that storing up treasures on this earth is a futile and fruitless endeavor at the end of our days. The only thing that ultimately matters are the treasures we store in heaven – if, indeed, we are actually people of faith.

We store our treasures in heaven by following the narrow path, by taking up our crosses and following Jesus. We do this by laying down the desires of our own flesh, and living for the love of God and the love of our neighbor.

To those of us who are clinging to the rock of this country, who are trying to defend the law and order that protects our comfort, our future, and our way of life, I say, you are clinging to the wrong thing. In fact, it really isn’t really a rock at all.

A nation is actually shifting sand. Like the sands of the great civilization of Babylon that lies today in deserted ruins, on a wind-swept dessert expanse without inhabitant. A nation is an empty and parched hope that turns to dust. People, however, have eternal value.

As I look at the way the present administration of this country is carrying out the agenda of President Donald Trump, I am saddened all the way around. I am not unpatriotic. I am not empty of all nationalistic pride, but the older I get and the more deeply I commit to Jesus, the more I identify as an alien and stranger in our world. My citizenship is not ultimately in the United States of America – or in any worldly nation. My citizenship is in heaven.

And as I turn down another stretch in this journey of my life, I am learning to be more focused on life after life, which is the life that Jesus urges us to focus on. The kingdom of God, which is not a kingdom of this world, is a foretaste of the next. That is the aim of people of faith.

By faith Abraham made his home in the promised land like a stranger in a foreign country. Isaac and Jacob did the same. They were waiting for “the city with foundations, whose architect and builder is God.” (Hebrews 11: 9-10) All the people offered to us as examples of faith in Hebrews 11 welcomed the promises of God from a distance as “welcomed them from a distance, admitting that they were “foreigners and strangers on earth” (Heb. 11:13) because they were longing for a “heavenly country” (Heb. 11:16) – not an earthly country.

So, as Christians on either side of the modern immigration issues, we cannot lose sight of our heavenly home, of that city whose architect and maker is the Lord. We longingly wait for the new heavens and the new earth that will come down and that day when the Lord, Himself, will dwell among us. That is our destiny and that is our destination.

Nations come and go. The grand monuments to our national identities will become like the Babylonian ruins, the heavens and earth will fade away, but a person who is born of imperishable seed lives forever. What, then, is a nation? Nations do not last.

We live by faith in the hope of the new Jerusalem where people from every tribe and nation and tongue will gather before the throne of the Lamb, crying, “Holy! Holy! Holy! Lord, God Almighty!” No human eye has seen nor mind conceived what is the greatness of the world that lies in store for us.

Why cling to the comforts and the privileges and the things that we can accumulate in this life when we are promised a life we cannot even imagine? Perhaps it is because we have a hard time imagining it. Yet, that is the substance of true faith – the certainty of things hoped for.

We should ask ourselves as we look at the great examples of faith God chose to parade before us in Hebrews 11 whether we would be honored to be counted among them? Or whether we think they were foolish to be tortured, jeered at, flogged and imprisoned for such a hope? They are commended for their faith in the promises of God they didn’t receive in this life.

Perhaps, the immigration issue separates sheep from goats. The laws and order of this country that wall out a field that is ripe unto harvest for the imperishable seed of the gospel are of illusory value to the person of faith. Are we willing to gain our country at the loss of our citizenship in heaven?

That is a question we all must ask ourselves. Even if we do not ask that question, though, we are all deciding which side of the wall we are on in the decisions we make daily. Are we aliens and strangers in our world? Or have we chosen the world as our portion?

Does God Flip Flop? Abraham, Isaac, and Us

What changed from the Old Testament to the New Testament?


I am listening to The Basic Folk podcast episode 316 with Joy Oladokun (an artist I like by the way) Perhaps, that is a strange way to open a blog post on the age old heresy of Marcionism – the belief that the god revealed in the Old Testament is different from God revealed in the New Testament. Hang with me though!

Joy Oladokun (who is a musical artist you should check out) grew up in the church and cut her musical chops on worship music and listening to Phil Collins with her father. She uses biblical themes in her music, which also has a distinctly spiritual character to it.

Though she may have some heretical ideas about God and the Bible, I believe we can appreciate and like music even when the artist doesn’t believe exactly as we do and, in this case, even when she has heretical ideas about God and the Bible. We are all on a journey in our relationship to God, and I appreciate that about people and the music people make on their own journeys.

Anyway, around the 15 minute mark in the podcast Joy Oladokun expresses her understanding that God, in the Old Testament flip flops. Then, she provides this short theological synopsis, “It’s like, ‘Sacrifice your son…. Never mind, here’s a goat.” I am chuckling even now, but her thoughts and the example she gives deserves a response.

Many people her age (and all ages, really) have an issue with the story of Abraham sacrificing Isaac. It also opens up a biblical theme that I glimpsed as a young nonbeliever reading the Bible for the first time many years ago that continues to develop as I age.

Perhaps, I am fortunate that I didn’t pay much attention to theology in my formative years, because I didn’t formulate many theological ideas that colored and warped my view of God. When I read the Bible for the first time in college, I came to it with no preconceived ideas and no assumptions (that I recall).

I was raised Catholic, but I didn’t even realize that the readings in the mass were from the Bible (until after I became a Christian). I could not recall anything from the catechism classes I took. I was pretty much too zoned out (and, later, stoned out) to latch onto many theological constructs.

I didn’t know anything about evangelical ideas, like biblical inerrancy, predestination, and eschatological schemes. I came at the Bible like I approached all literature, poetry, and philosophy. I let it speak to me and convey its message to me.

Early on (as I read Genesis), I learned that Abraham heard the voice of God, and he responded in faith (with trust). I learned that the Ancient Near Eastern people from whom Abraham descended and believed in many gods who were more or less arbitrary and capricious. One of those beliefs that was ubiquitous in Abraham’s day was the belief that gods require child sacrifice to be appeased.

I could see that the God who Abraham “heard” was not like those other gods that he and the people around him believed in. I could see that Abraham lived his life on a journey (quite literally) of discovery about this God whose “voice” he heard.

Abraham’s understanding was evolving as he sensed this God and responded in faith to Him. He was learning that God was not like the gods with which he was familiar. This God made promises, and He kept them. This God desired a relationship with Abraham, and He was trustworthy.

I have to admit that the story about Isaac was a bit of a mystery to me then, but I didn’t rush to any conclusions. I understood that child sacrifice was practiced throughout the ancient Levant, but something was different about this story that carried some significance, though I wasn’t quite sure of all that it meant at the time.

There was a lot I didn’t understand. I was on a journey myself, and I realized there was mystery in the stories that belied quick or simple explanations. I, like Abraham perhaps, was willing to explore where a connection to this God might take me (after a brief flirtation with Eastern religion).

I have been on this journey now for over 45 years. I responded to the God of Abraham when I was 19 (the summer after I first read the Bible). I was far from knowing all the answers (though I did go through a period in which I thought I knew much more than I did).

I guess the thought that we know more than we really do is a human trait, and it is one we are well advised to resist. We are finite beings, regardless of the knowledge we collect, and we will never be more than finite beings in these earthly bodies that we will take to our graves.

I can’t tell you how many years I have taken to get to a place of some comfortable understanding on the Abraham and Isaac story. It is more than I might like to admit, but I have always been willing to give God the benefit of the doubt, which is what Abraham did. It is what he was commended for: faith, which is simply trusting in the goodness of God.


The Bible we have says that God told Abraham to go sacrifice his son, Isaac. We cannot escape that is what the Bible says. But, is that what God actually said?


Or is that just what Abraham “heard”? Or is it just what Abraham understood? Or is it just what he felt compelled to do?

I don’t know, and I think it is ok to say, “We don’t really know.” I also think it is ok to ask the question and to assume we may not necessarily have the right answer.

In any event, Abraham clearly believed that God told him to sacrifice his son. That requirement, of course, is antithetical to the promise God had given Abraham – that Abraham’s descendants would fill the earth and become as numerous as the stars in the sky. Yet, Abraham dutifully (if not reluctantly) complied with what he believed he must do.

This is a kind of faith that we don’t understand today, especially in the post Enlightenment age of reason and science driven more recently by post-modern skepticism. We are told in Sunday school (as I have learned) that this story is about Abraham’s faith and willingness to do what he was told, though it didn’t make sense

I think that is partially true, but I have come to see that the story is not only (or maybe even primarily) about faith. The story isn’t primarily about Abraham, either. He is just the vessel through which the story unfolds. The story is about God, and who God is, and the character of God.

Whether God told Abraham to sacrifice his son, or Abraham jumped to that conclusion, doesn’t matter so much. Child sacrifice was demanded by the gods, according to Ancient Near Eastern religious thought that was formative in Abraham’s outlook on the world. He responded according to the custom, practice, and wisdom of his age.

I have written about this a number of times before. (See the Abraham and the Paradigm Shift, Abraham and the Love of God, Abraham and Isaac Revisited: Introduction, Abraham and Isaac Revisited: Here I Am, Abraham, Abraham and Faith and the Hope Deferred, and Abraham and the Blood Path) I am not going to cover all that ground again, but I return to the same theme again because it has roots in my initial revelation of God and my own journey of faith. As I hope to flesh out, it also provides some insight into the God who seems to flip flop.

Continue reading “Does God Flip Flop? Abraham, Isaac, and Us”

How Do We Know When a Person Is a False Messiah or False Prophet?

Jesus told us what to look for

“[I]f anyone says to you, ‘Look, here is the Christ!’ or ‘There He is!’ do not believe it. For false messiahs and false prophets will appear and perform great signs and wonders to deceive, if possible, even the elect.”

Matthew 24:23-24

This is a significant warning from Jesus about future times – our times. It’s easy to call out false messiahs and false prophets, and many have done that, but we should be cautious and careful in our understanding of what a false messiah or false prophet and, more importantly, how to spot one.

The Greek word translated a “false” in this passage is ψευδή (pseudés) meaning “false, untrue”, and “(by extension) erroneous, deceitful, wicked.” The word comes from the root verb ψεύδομα (pseudomai) meaning “to utter a lie or attempt to deceive by falsehood.”

The Greek word Χριστός (Christos), of course, means Christ – the Christ – as in Jesus Christ, but, it could mean more than that. Christos derives from the verb chrio (χρίω), which literally means “to smear or rub with oil.” It also means “to anoint” (especially for a divine purpose” and “(by implication) to consecrate to an office or religious service.”

Jesus used chrio when he said, “The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed me to proclaim good news to the poor.” (Luke 4:18) In more modern terminology, we might say that Jesus was appointed to proclaim good news to the poor. The “anointing” (the pouring of oil on a person) was symbolic of a person’s appointment to a position. In religious circles, we might use the word, “calling,” today.

The idea of anointing a person appointed by God for a particular office was practiced in the Old Testament as well. Samuel “took a flask of olive oil and poured it on Saul’s head”, and he said, “Has not the LORD anointed you ruler over his inheritance?” (1 Samuel 10:1)

Christos has a counterpart in the Hebrew word, מָשַׁח (mashach), meaning “to rub with oil, i.e. to anoint,” and “(by implication) to consecrate.” Hebrew kings, priests, and prophets were anointed in this manner as a way of recognizing their position (appointment). Thus, מָשִׁיחַ (Messiah), literally “Anointed One,” emerged from this practice.

The Greek word, Christos, is the equivalent of the Hebrew word, Messiah, of course. We tend to think only of Jesus Christ, “the” Messiah, when we use those terms, but anointing men for their offices was common practice in the Old Testament and New Testament times by Hebrews and by Greeks. Anyone who was anointed (appointed) for an office was an “anointed one.”


A false Messiah is one who falsely claims or acts as if he is anointed (appointed) for a particular role. The Hebrew word for Prophet (προφήτης (prophétés)) means speaking forth by the inspiration of God, so a false prophet would be one who falsely speaks as if by the inspiration of God.


Jesus uses the terms, false messiahs and false prophets (plural), to signify that many people would come claiming (or claimed) to be messiahs or prophets. He says, they will deceive many people and even the elect, if possible. Elsewhere, Jesus says they “will come to you in sheep’s clothing” and warns us to “Watch out!” (Matt. 7:15)

Is it possible for God’s children to be deceived? I would like to think not, but then why does Jesus warn us to “Watch out!”? Why does Jesus say false messiahs and false prophets might even deceive “the very elect”?

I don’t know if God’s children – the sheep who hear His voice – can ultimately be deceived by false messiahs and false prophets, but that doesn’t mean we could not be deceived at some point or for a time. It’s safe to say, I think, that Jesus would not have warned us at all if it wasn’t at all possible to be deceived to some extent.

At a minimum, Matthew 24:24 highlights the extreme danger and the potential for even believers to be swayed or confused by the powerful deceptions of false messiahs and false prophets. Peter warns us soberly that “there will be false teachers among you” (1 Peter 2:1), so we need to beware. But, how?

So far, we can say from the descriptor of false messiahs and false prophets that they are deceivers; they are not truly anointed for the purposes they or others claim; and they do not truly speak under inspiration from God. They deceive and lie, and that is what makes them dangerous. But, again, how will we know?

When God became man and came to His own people, they didn’t even recognize Him or receive Him. (John 1: 9-11) If God came in the flesh to people with whom God had a covenant for many hundreds of years, and they didn’t recognize Him, we should have the humility to admit that we might not recognize God always when He is active in our world, and for the same reason we might be fooled by false messiahs and false prophets.


What, then, are the clues that a messiah (one who seems to be anointed for a purpose, calling, position) or a prophet (one who purports or who is purported to speak by the inspiration of God) is false? Fortunately, the Bible gives us more information to go on.


Continue reading “How Do We Know When a Person Is a False Messiah or False Prophet?”

On the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate and Reeds Blowing in the Wind

Should Christians be influenced by shifting political winds?


I recall today the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate award from Rowan and Martin’s Laugh In back in 1968. When I was 8 years old, Laugh In was a hip variety show of biting political humor that was mostly lost on my young mind. The award was a dubious honor ceremoniously presented each week to public figures, corporations, and government agencies for ridiculous “achievements”.


The Fickle Finger of Fate suggests the unpredictable and arbitrary nature of luck or destiny. As finite human beings, we don’t control our fates, and we cannot know the twists and turns that await us in the future.


The award has an ironic backstory. Star Trek was moved from the coveted 7:00 PM spot to the dreaded 10:00 PM “death slot” by NBC to make room for Laugh In. The hip, comedic variety show, however, was popular only for a relatively a short stint from 1968 to 1973 and has largely been forgotten by all but impressionable young minds.

Star Trek, on the other hand, went on to become an iconic science fiction series. It was ahead of its time, and it became a hit in off-network syndication, inspiring sequels and movies for almost 50 years.

Fate is certainly a fickle thing. Driven by polls and ratings to attract the largest audience, NBC obviously did not foresee the lasting success of the Star Trek brand. They also did not expect the short-lived lifespan of their cutting edge variety show that replaced Star Trek.

As Christians, we don’t believe in fate, of course. We don’t believe in random chance. We believe in God who designed and ordered the universe and established our place in it.

The future, however, is equally unknowable to us. As the writer of Ecclesiastes said thousands of years ago, “God set eternity in the heart of man, but not so that he can know the end from the beginning.” (Ecc. 3:11). The Prophet Isaiah said it this way,

“’For my thoughts are not your thoughts,
    neither are your ways my ways,’
declares the Lord.
‘As the heavens are higher than the earth,
    so are my ways higher than your ways
    and my thoughts than your thoughts.'”

Isaiah 58:8-6

God famously, but lovingly, rebuked Job for insisting on understanding things he could not fathom. As with Job, we are invited to have faith and to trust God, but we have more reason for hope and trust than Job, because we know our redeemer lives. He rose from the dead!

We understand that God can be trusted because of His willing demonstration of love for us in emptying Himself to become a man and laying down His life for us. We have no option but to trust Him, but we know we can trust him because of His love for us that He demonstrated on the cross.

Still, we easily are easily swayed and influenced by external pressures. We may think that we understand the times when we are only blowing in the shifting winds of “fate” (powers and principalities that want to blow us off course).


Paul says these powers and principalities are operative in the world. They are “spirits of the age” that play us like instruments if we are not grounded in the Word of God and led by His Holy Spirit.

Jesus used the phrase, reed blowing in the wind, when he addressed a crowd that went into the wilderness to see John the Baptist: “Did you you go to see a “reed swayed in the wind?” (Matt. 11:7-18)


John the Baptist was not just a curiosity. He was not a fleeting personality (like Rowan & Martin) with no lasting importance or purpose. He was the messenger of the Messiah, foretold by the prophets preparing the way for Jesus, the suffering servant who would take away the sins of the world. John was an agent in God’s eternal plan, and Jesus was (and is) the key figure in that plan.

Though he was foretold by the Prophets, no one knew exactly how things would unfold – not even God’s own people. In fact, they didn’t recognize God’s Messiah or receive him when he came. (John 1:11). Crowd of common people were drawn to Jesus, but smarter and more prestigious religious leaders were not.

Many have come, and many have gone. Many have claimed to be the harbingers of promise and special knowledge in their times, but many have proven wrong in their predictions.

The reality is that we do not know what we do not know. We must ever remain open to letting God’s Word shape us and direct us, and we must ever remain attentive to allow the Holy Spirit to guide us in applying His Word in our times.

Even now, smart people – including learned, religious people – believe and act as if they know the times. It is the same in every age and every generation, but we are easily swayed and blown by the winds of fate and human influence that seek to drive the course of history not always in ways that are aligned with God’s plan and purposes. To that generation, and to ours, Jesus said:

“They are like children sitting in the marketplaces and calling out to others:
‘We played the pipe for you,
    and you did not dance;
we sang a dirge,
    and you did not mourn.’”

Matt. 11:16-17

Human tendency is to trust ourselves. The smarter we are, the more we trust in our own ability to figure it out. Perhaps, this explains why so many scientists and PhD’s are atheists. Perhaps, this is why so many of the religious leaders in the time of Jesus were blind leaders of the blind. Perhaps, we are susceptible to the same error.


We don’t know the end from the beginning. We don’t know God’s thoughts unless He reveals them. God doesn’t dance to the tunes we play. Our tunes are often just riffs on the spirits of our age changing as those spirits change their tunes that we follow.


I reflect on these things as I think through changes in the winds influencing the evangelical church in my lifetime.. We need to be grounded in the Word of God and in tune with the Spirit of God. (See Hearing the Voice of God for Today) if we are not, we become reeds blowing in the wind.

A few weeks ago, I created a short list of issues on which Evangelicals (my tribe) have swayed in the political winds during my lifetime. I have done some research to confirm and correct my intuitions, and that exercise has confirmed my suspicions that we have, indeed, been reeds blowing in the political winds over the last 60 years. Following are just a few examples.

Continue reading “On the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate and Reeds Blowing in the Wind”